| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18278 |
| 1 Year Out, San Diego Mayor Race is Anyone's Game: In a non-partisan election for mayor of San Diego today, 06/08/11, 4 candidates finish bunched within 10 points of each other, making any outcome possible.
City Council Member Carl DeMaio today gets 22% of the vote, and begins the campaign with notable advantages among demographic groups that tend to break for more conservative candidates. DeMaio, one of 5 Republicans running in this non-partisan race, leads today among men, whites, Asians, Republicans, independents, conservatives, and higher-income voters. Among the oldest and traditionally most reliable voters, DeMaio leads by 11 points. Among the small number of San Diego voters who identify themselves as Tea Party members, DeMaio leads his nearest rival 4:1. San Diego County District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis gets 15%, slightly edging DeMaio among women, but not leading among any other group. Bob Filner, currently serving his 10th term in the US House of Representatives as a Democrat, gets 14% today, and leads among the youngest and traditionally least reliable voters and among San Diego's relatively small number of African American voters. Democratic State Senator Christine Kehoe gets 12%, leading Filner and Dumanis among Democrats, and is significantly ahead among liberals. 3 other named candidates combine to take 17% of the vote; 6% say they would vote for some other, unnamed candidate. 14% of registered voters today are undecided. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 600 San Diego adults 06/06/11 through 06/07/11. Of them, 538 were registered to vote and were asked how they would vote in the 06/05/12 primary. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary, the top two finishers will advance to the 11/06/12 general election. Incumbent Mayor Jerry Sanders is term-limited. |
| 1 | [Candidate Names Rotated] San Diego will hold a primary election for mayor in June 2012. If the primary election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for? Carl DeMaio? Bonnie Dumanis? Kevin Faulconer? Bob Filner? Nathan Fletcher? Steve Francis? Christine Kehoe? Or some other candidate? |
| 538 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | Ideology | College Grad | Income | ||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Yes | No | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Carl DeMaio | 22% | 26% | 19% | 8% | 22% | 27% | 28% | 18% | 27% | 26% | 5% | 14% | 21% | 33% | 10% | 28% | 44% | 19% | 31% | 22% | 12% | 23% | 22% | 20% | 18% | 26% |
| Bonnie Dumanis | 15% | 9% | 21% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 21% | 17% | 10% | 12% | 16% | 19% | 5% | 17% | 13% | 19% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 13% | 19% |
| Kevin Faulconer | 6% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 4% |
| Bob Filner | 14% | 17% | 12% | 21% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 11% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 11% | 18% | 13% | 13% | 15% | 10% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 19% | 11% |
| Nathan Fletcher | 7% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 1% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 11% | 6% |
| Steve Francis | 4% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| Christine Kehoe | 12% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 21% | 9% | 6% | 13% | 4% | 11% | 25% | 14% | 9% | 16% | 12% | 10% |
| Other | 6% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 5% | 5% |
| Undecided | 14% | 13% | 15% | 19% | 18% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 9% | 10% | 20% | 18% | 24% | 11% | 18% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 13% | 14% | 14% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 17% | 35% | 26% | 22% | 52% | 48% | 64% | 6% | 15% | 15% | 35% | 39% | 25% | 13% | 83% | 33% | 43% | 20% | 59% | 41% | 23% | 32% | 45% |