Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27166
 
1 in 3 AZ-01 Democratic Primary Voters Still Undecided, Two Weeks Before Ballots Are Mailed; 4 Candidates Neck-and-Neck-and-Neck-and-Neck:

SurveyUSA's latest polling in Arizona's 1st Congressional District shows 4 candidates in the 6-candidate field closely bunched together and almost a third of likely voters as yet undecided, meaning any candidate might be the one to advance and face incumbent Republican David Schweikert in November.

Today, state House representative Amish Shah finishes first with 18% of the vote, just ahead of investment banker Conor O'Callaghan, who takes 15%. Former broadcast journalist Marlene Galán-Woods is at 13%, as is businessman Andrei Cherny. Orthodontist Andrew Horne is further back at 7%, and former Arizona Red Cross head Kurt Kroemer is at 4%. 30% of likely voters are undecided, including 48% of the youngest and typically least-reliable voters, and 47% of those who say they will probably vote.

Looking at specific areas of strength for the leading candidates:
  • Shah runs particularly strongly among those who say they will vote in-person, where he takes 29% of the vote; among Latino voters, where he takes 27%, and among both middle-income voters and voters of Asian descent, where he takes 26%.
  • O'Callaghan draws strength from Black voters, where he leads with 24%, 11 points ahead the next-best candidate among Black voters, Galán-Woods; he also leads among 35 to 49-year-olds, where his 21% of the vote puts him 8 points atop Galán-Woods and 11 points ahead of Shah.
  • Galán-Woods runs far ahead of the others among the very small number of Democratic primary voters who say they will vote by using a ballot drop-box, where she takes 38% of the vote. She also is at 29% among the similarly small number of conservatives voting in the primary. More meaningfully, Galán-Woods takes 20% among Latino voters, behind Shah's 27% and Cherny's 21%, but well ahead of O'Callaghan's 11%.
  • Cherny runs most strongly among Asian Americans, where he ties Shah with 26%, and also does well with Latinos, as just mentioned, and among seniors, where he is also at 21%, just behind Shah's 23%.
Early voting by mail is by far the overwhelming preference of most voters in this contest, with 86% of likely voters planning to vote that way. Those who say they are certain they will vote are more likely (88%) than those who say they will probably vote (64%) to vote by mail. 11% say they will vote in-person on Election Day, including 9% of certain voters but 27% of probable voters. Just 2% overall intend to use a ballot drop-box, including 2% of certain voters and 6% those saying they will probably vote.

Further breaking that down, Cherny voters are the most likely to say they will vote by mail, at 97%, followed by O'Callaghan's at 86%, Galán-Woods' at 85%, and Shah's at 81%. Shah's voters are the most likely to vote in-person, at 17%, compared to 10% of O'Callaghan voters, 9% of Galán-Woods voters, and 2% of Cherny voters. While Galán-Woods does lead among that 2% who say they will use a ballot drop-box, those are so few people that it translates to just 6% of her total electorate.

A majority of the likely voters who are not undecided, 55%, say it's possible their minds may be changed before the primary; 45% say they are fully committed to their candidate. The two candidates trailing in the primary, Horne and Kroemer, have the most-committed voters, with 54% and 55%, respectively, saying they are fully committed. Of the leading candidates, 51% of Shah voters are committed, as are 44% of O'Callaghan voters, and 36% of both Cherny voters and Galán-Woods voters.

Those voting for Marlene Galán-Woods are split on how much of a factor her being a woman is to their vote. 25% say it's "very much" a factor, 28% "somewhat" of a factor, 27% "not too much" of a factor; 20% say it is not a factor at all. Her gender matters more to the women planning to vote for her than it does the men, with 77% of her female voters saying it's very much (30%) or somewhat (47%) of a factor, compared to 32% of the men voting for her (21% of whom say it is very much a factor, 11% of whom say it is somewhat of a factor).

A plurality of those voters who are undecided or who have picked a candidate but say they may still change their minds, 39%, say it doesn't matter to them if a candidate has called attention to the backgrounds, party affiliations, and voting records of their fellow candidates in the race. 17% say they would be more likely to support such a candidate; 19% say they would be less likely to support them. Black voters are the most likely to say they'd be more likely to support such a candidate, young voters the most likely to say they'd be less likely to do so.

Finally, undecided and uncommitted voters were asked to choose each of the candidates they would consider supporting in the primary. Percentage of voters responding that they would consider each candidate, ranked from most-selected to least-selected:
  • 23%: Marlene Galán-Woods. 37% among those with high school educations, 33% among those with household incomes below $40k annually; 31% among voters age 65+.
  • 23%: Amish Shah. 41% among those with high school educations, 36% among Latino voters.
  • 19%: Conor O'Callaghan. 24% among men. 23% among voters 50+, 20% among voters age 35 to 49; 5% among 18 to 34-year-olds.
  • 19%: Andrei Cherny. 35% among Latinos; 32% among seniors.
  • 12%: Andrew Horne. 21% among those with the lowest household incomes.
  • 7%: Kurt Kroemer. 13% among parents of children under age 18.
Fully crosstabbed results follow ...
 
About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 844 adult respondents from Arizona's 1st congressional district 06/17/24 through 06/21/24. Sample was pre-screened to filter out those who were not registered as Democrats or as unaffiliated voters, with no party affiliation. Of the adults, 788 were identified by SurveyUSA as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 460 were identified as Democrats, 219 as unaffiliated. Of the Democrats, 438 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the July 30 Democratic primary for Congress, as were 48 of the unaffiliated voters, for a total of 485 likely Democratic primary voters, who were asked the substantive questions which follow. This research was conducted using a blended sample, mixed mode approach. 27% of likely voters were online panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans, who were shown the survey questions on the display of their smartphone, laptop, or tablet. 49% of voters were texted on their cell phones by live operators who secured the cooperation of each respondent before linking them to an online survey, using telephone sample of registered voters purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. The remaining 24% of likely voters were interviewed on their landline telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, again using telephone sample of registered voters from Aristotle. The pool of adult respondents was weighted to client-provided targets for gender, age, and ethnicity, derived from the voter file.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of Arizona?
844 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Yes93%97%90%90%87%94%100%89%97%94%**90%89%100%100%100%100%99%97%94%93%100%100%**100%100%**100%100%100%100%87%95%75%91%97%82%93%98%98%84%94%91%82%100%100%96%92%94%93%**91%
No6%2%9%10%10%5%0%10%2%5%**9%5%----1%2%5%6%----------11%4%20%7%3%15%6%2%1%14%5%8%15%0%0%1%7%6%6%**6%
Not Sure1%1%1%0%3%1%0%2%1%1%**1%7%----0%0%1%1%----------2%1%5%2%0%3%1%0%0%2%1%1%3%0%0%3%1%0%1%**3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%46%54%23%21%23%33%44%56%81%4%9%6%90%10%58%28%14%26%44%10%86%11%2%15%13%4%7%13%18%30%20%79%10%27%64%17%34%49%64%36%47%53%37%46%17%6%13%42%28%2%9%
 
2Are you registered to vote as a Republican? Democrat? Libertarian? Or without a party affiliation, as an unaffiliated voter?
788 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Republican10%12%9%13%9%11%8%12%9%11%**9%0%--0%0%0%0%11%48%----------15%9%20%17%6%17%11%8%9%14%11%14%15%11%0%5%18%8%10%**18%
Democrat58%50%66%44%55%63%67%49%65%57%**69%51%94%57%100%0%92%81%45%11%93%75%**88%93%**98%93%88%88%51%60%44%59%60%53%61%59%61%53%55%54%46%60%78%66%56%59%56%**59%
Libertarian2%0%4%6%4%1%0%5%0%2%**6%3%--0%0%0%3%3%2%----------2%2%9%1%2%2%3%2%1%5%3%2%6%0%0%3%3%2%3%**0%
Unaffiliated 28%36%20%36%31%25%23%33%24%29%**16%40%6%43%0%100%8%14%41%35%7%25%**12%7%**2%7%12%12%30%27%21%21%31%27%22%31%28%26%30%28%30%28%22%25%22%30%30%**20%
Not Sure1%2%1%1%2%1%2%1%1%1%**1%7%--0%0%0%1%1%4%----------2%1%6%2%1%2%2%0%1%2%2%1%3%1%0%1%1%1%1%**3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%22%19%23%35%42%58%82%4%9%6%90%10%58%28%15%27%44%10%86%11%2%15%13%4%7%13%18%30%18%81%8%26%66%15%33%51%68%32%48%52%33%49%18%6%13%42%28%2%9%
 
3Arizona will hold primary elections for Congress in July. Unaffiliated voters may choose to vote in either party's primary, though many unaffiliated voters choose not to vote in any primary.

Will you not vote in a party primary for congress in July? Definitely vote in the Democratic primary for Congress? Probably vote in the Democratic primary? Definitely vote in the Republican primary? Or Probably vote in the Republican primary?
219 Unaffiliated VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 9.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Will Not Vote35%38%29%39%35%20%40%37%32%38%****17%--**35%**60%32%27%----------38%33%27%37%34%22%44%33%31%43%21%47%37%32%36%17%43%31%42%**31%
Definitely Democratic12%15%9%7%9%12%21%8%17%13%****8%100%0%**12%**6%13%2%63%54%**43%85%****84%86%35%4%15%8%20%11%7%15%11%11%12%14%6%11%9%27%32%6%15%5%**16%
Probably Democratic9%5%16%12%6%11%8%9%9%8%****12%0%100%**9%**25%9%0%37%46%**57%15%****16%14%65%9%9%18%12%7%11%10%8%9%10%14%5%17%4%6%5%3%11%8%**14%
Definitely Republican 16%16%16%12%10%29%14%11%20%15%****27%--**16%**0%11%57%----------16%16%4%13%17%24%8%17%18%11%13%18%4%24%18%21%22%15%15%**11%
Probably Republican9%10%6%7%8%14%7%7%10%8%****13%--**9%**7%10%6%----------7%9%0%12%8%2%5%12%10%6%7%11%8%10%7%25%6%5%12%**0%
Not Sure20%17%24%23%32%14%11%27%12%19%****24%--**20%**2%25%7%----------27%18%43%6%21%34%18%18%21%18%31%13%23%21%7%0%20%23%18%**27%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Unaffiliated Voters100%62%38%29%21%21%29%50%50%85%2%5%8%58%42%0%100%4%14%65%13%65%28%5%19%9%3%1%9%23%36%20%80%6%19%75%15%27%58%69%31%49%51%36%50%14%5%10%45%30%3%6%
 
4Arizona will hold primary elections for Congress in July. Not every voter finds the time to vote in a primary. Are you certain to vote in the Democratic primary for Congress in July? Will you probably vote? Probably not vote? Or definitely not vote?
460 Registered DemocratsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Certain To Vote89%90%89%92%78%93%92%84%92%91%68%88%**100%0%89%**93%91%86%**95%83%**97%93%**100%93%96%91%82%91%76%83%93%83%89%91%91%85%87%88%83%90%94%83%85%91%92%**85%
Will Probably Vote6%7%5%5%12%3%5%9%4%5%24%7%**0%100%6%**6%6%6%**5%17%**3%7%**0%7%4%9%7%5%4%10%4%6%8%4%4%9%7%6%9%5%4%10%4%5%4%**13%
Probably Not Vote3%1%5%1%9%2%2%5%2%3%0%2%**--3%**2%3%4%**----------8%2%11%5%2%5%3%3%3%3%3%4%5%3%2%4%9%3%3%**0%
Definitely Not Vote0%1%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%3%0%**--0%**0%0%1%**----------0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%**0%
Not Sure1%1%1%1%2%2%1%1%2%1%4%3%**--1%**0%1%3%**----------3%1%9%2%1%6%0%1%1%2%3%1%3%1%0%4%2%1%1%**1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Democrats100%41%59%17%18%25%40%35%65%80%5%10%5%94%6%100%0%23%38%34%2%88%9%2%15%14%4%7%13%18%29%16%83%6%26%68%14%35%52%71%29%48%52%26%51%24%7%13%43%27%2%9%
 
5How will you vote in the primary? Early by mail? In person on election day? Or a ballot drop-box?
485 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Early By Mail86%82%89%71%82%86%94%77%91%88%**85%82%88%64%88%65%87%86%90%**100%0%**86%97%**91%85%81%84%80%87%89%78%89%87%76%92%91%74%79%92%72%93%88%96%88%86%83%**85%
In Person11%15%8%27%13%10%4%20%6%10%**9%11%9%27%9%28%9%12%6%**0%100%**10%2%**9%9%17%12%15%10%9%17%9%7%21%5%6%23%16%6%23%5%10%2%10%11%14%**11%
Ballot Drop-box 2%2%2%1%3%3%1%2%2%2%**1%0%2%6%2%5%3%2%2%**0%0%**2%1%**0%6%0%2%4%2%0%3%2%4%2%2%2%2%4%1%4%1%1%0%1%2%2%**2%
Not Sure1%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%0%**5%7%1%2%1%2%2%0%2%**0%0%**2%0%**0%0%2%2%1%1%2%2%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%**2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%43%57%18%17%25%40%35%65%80%5%10%5%90%10%90%10%23%37%36%2%86%11%2%15%13%4%7%13%18%30%15%85%5%26%69%13%35%52%71%29%50%50%27%49%24%7%11%44%27%2%9%
 
6If the July primary election for US House of Representatives in Arizona's 1st congressional district were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? Conor O'Callaghan? Andrei Cherny? Kurt Kroemer? Andrew Horne? Marlene Galán-Woods? Or Amish Shah?
485 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Conor O'Callaghan15%13%16%4%21%17%16%12%16%15%**11%13%15%14%15%19%13%13%19%**15%13%**100%0%**0%0%0%0%12%16%17%17%14%14%14%16%15%15%11%17%14%14%18%21%19%13%16%**12%
Andrei Cherny13%15%12%2%6%14%21%4%18%12%**21%26%14%11%14%9%13%16%11%**15%3%**0%100%**0%0%0%0%7%14%11%9%15%10%9%17%15%8%9%11%8%11%23%12%27%16%3%**13%
Kurt Kroemer4%3%4%7%7%2%2%7%2%4%**2%0%3%7%4%3%4%6%2%**4%5%**0%0%**0%0%0%0%14%2%22%6%2%4%6%2%3%6%3%5%7%2%3%0%8%1%8%**2%
Andrew Horne7%10%4%11%3%10%5%7%7%7%**4%2%7%1%7%1%6%11%3%**7%6%**0%0%**100%0%0%0%7%7%2%3%9%6%5%8%8%4%6%9%4%9%5%4%7%8%8%**3%
Marlene Galán-Woods13%16%11%12%13%8%17%12%13%13%**20%6%13%10%13%9%10%11%17%**13%11%**0%0%**0%100%0%0%12%13%17%16%12%15%16%10%13%13%17%10%13%13%12%3%10%15%13%**11%
Amish Shah18%21%16%17%10%17%23%14%21%18%**27%26%19%10%18%23%12%19%20%**17%29%**0%0%**0%0%100%0%9%20%16%14%20%10%26%15%19%17%17%11%12%15%33%14%6%21%16%**32%
Undecided30%21%37%48%40%32%17%44%23%32%**14%27%28%47%29%36%44%24%28%**29%34%**0%0%**0%0%0%100%40%28%14%36%29%40%24%32%28%37%37%37%41%35%7%46%22%26%36%**27%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%43%57%18%17%25%40%35%65%80%5%10%5%90%10%90%10%23%37%36%2%86%11%2%15%13%4%7%13%18%30%15%85%5%26%69%13%35%52%71%29%50%50%27%49%24%7%11%44%27%2%9%
 
7How committed are you to your decision on who to vote for in the Democratic primary for US House of Representatives? Are you fully committed, nothing will change your mind? Or is it possible your mind could be changed and you could still vote for someone else?
339 Who Are Not UndecidedAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 6.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Fully Committed45%44%45%58%35%36%48%46%44%44%**45%60%45%41%46%24%30%54%39%**44%56%**44%36%55%54%36%51%**36%46%49%40%46%35%49%43%42%49%40%46%38%45%48%46%53%39%48%**52%
Mind Could Be Changed55%56%55%42%65%64%52%54%56%56%**55%40%55%59%54%76%70%46%61%**56%44%**56%64%45%46%64%49%**64%54%51%60%54%65%51%57%58%51%60%54%62%55%52%54%47%61%52%**48%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Are Not Undecided100%48%52%13%15%24%48%28%72%78%4%12%5%93%7%91%9%19%40%37%1%87%10%2%21%19%5%10%19%26%0%13%87%6%24%70%11%38%51%73%27%50%50%23%45%32%5%12%47%24%2%9%
 
8Is Marlene Galán-Woods' being a woman very much a factor in your vote? Somewhat of a factor? Not too much of a factor? Not a factor at all?
63 Woods VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 15.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Very Much a Factor 25%21%30%8%32%7%34%20%28%26%**13%**25%24%26%16%23%25%23%**27%15%18%********25%****34%25%0%28%26%17%29%25%29%19%29%14%4%34%32%**39%25%18%19%44%
Somewhat Of a Factor28%10%47%50%6%31%27%28%28%31%**18%**28%25%27%33%52%24%21%**26%40%31%********28%****7%32%0%42%24%75%10%27%23%38%27%40%45%25%13%**45%19%47%19%12%
Not Too Much Of a Factor27%36%17%42%38%35%17%40%21%25%**42%**28%14%28%16%15%19%38%**32%0%0%********27%****59%23%100%19%23%0%39%26%31%13%30%28%28%30%19%**0%32%31%35%14%
Not a Factor At All20%33%6%0%25%28%22%12%23%18%**27%**19%37%19%35%10%32%17%**15%45%51%********20%****0%20%0%11%27%7%22%23%17%30%14%19%23%11%36%**16%24%4%27%30%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Woods Voters100%52%48%16%16%15%53%33%67%77%5%15%2%93%7%93%7%17%31%48%4%85%9%6%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%13%84%7%32%61%15%43%42%70%30%63%37%28%50%22%2%9%50%26%6%7%
 
9If a candidate in the primary has repeatedly called attention to the backgrounds, party affiliations, and voting records of their fellow candidates in the race, are you more or less likely to support that candidate in the election?
334 Who Are Undecided or Who May Still Change MindAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 6.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
More Likely To Support17%19%16%18%10%17%22%14%20%16%41%19%**18%13%17%21%14%19%18%**16%32%**21%15%****19%23%16%9%19%**26%15%21%23%13%15%23%17%14%16%16%24%12%19%19%13%**22%
Less Likely19%18%20%42%14%13%16%27%14%19%18%21%**19%23%20%17%18%19%21%**20%17%**11%15%****17%10%25%14%20%**18%19%33%11%21%14%33%24%16%26%17%14%12%13%16%26%**16%
Doesn't Matter39%42%37%17%50%39%45%34%42%40%21%37%**38%50%37%55%28%41%45%**40%33%**53%50%****42%47%30%49%37%**33%40%33%40%39%44%25%35%39%37%37%48%50%46%41%30%**50%
Not Sure24%21%26%23%27%31%18%25%24%25%20%24%**26%14%27%7%41%21%16%**25%18%**15%19%****23%20%29%27%24%**22%26%13%25%27%26%19%23%31%21%30%13%26%21%24%31%**13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Are Undecided or Who May Still Change Mind100%41%59%18%20%28%35%38%62%82%5%9%4%89%11%88%12%28%32%37%2%86%10%3%12%12%2%4%12%13%44%17%82%4%28%68%15%32%53%71%29%51%49%31%50%19%7%9%46%27%3%8%
 
10If the July primary election for US House of Representatives in Arizona's 1st congressional district were today, who would you consider supporting in this primary?

Conor O'Callaghan?
334 Who Are Undecided or Who May Still Change MindAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Yes19%24%15%5%20%22%23%12%23%18%21%17%**19%13%18%22%16%19%21%**19%11%**83%26%****15%11%3%17%19%**18%19%16%16%20%20%13%13%13%14%13%41%17%12%21%20%**13%
No81%76%85%95%80%78%77%88%77%82%79%83%**81%87%82%78%84%81%79%**81%89%**17%74%****85%89%97%83%81%**82%81%84%84%80%80%87%87%87%86%87%59%83%88%79%80%**87%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Are Undecided or Who May Still Change Mind100%41%59%18%20%28%35%38%62%82%5%9%4%89%11%88%12%28%32%37%2%86%10%3%12%12%2%4%12%13%44%17%82%4%28%68%15%32%53%71%29%51%49%31%50%19%7%9%46%27%3%8%
 
11Andrei Cherny?
334 Who Are Undecided or Who May Still Change MindAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Yes19%21%18%2%7%23%32%5%28%18%7%35%**21%9%21%9%12%28%17%**22%2%**21%92%****14%15%3%14%20%**14%22%22%14%21%24%6%8%14%10%11%55%10%27%20%14%**32%
No81%79%82%98%93%77%68%95%72%82%93%65%**79%91%79%91%88%72%83%**78%98%**79%8%****86%85%97%86%80%**86%78%78%86%79%76%94%92%86%90%89%45%90%73%80%86%**68%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Are Undecided or Who May Still Change Mind100%41%59%18%20%28%35%38%62%82%5%9%4%89%11%88%12%28%32%37%2%86%10%3%12%12%2%4%12%13%44%17%82%4%28%68%15%32%53%71%29%51%49%31%50%19%7%9%46%27%3%8%
 
12Kurt Kroemer?
334 Who Are Undecided or Who May Still Change MindAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Yes7%8%6%2%9%10%6%6%8%7%7%2%**7%3%7%8%7%7%7%**7%7%**15%14%****2%2%2%13%6%**9%6%4%5%8%8%4%4%4%5%4%18%3%10%5%8%**10%
No93%92%94%98%91%90%94%94%92%93%93%98%**93%97%93%92%93%93%93%**93%93%**85%86%****98%98%98%87%94%**91%94%96%95%92%92%96%96%96%95%96%82%97%90%95%92%**90%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Are Undecided or Who May Still Change Mind100%41%59%18%20%28%35%38%62%82%5%9%4%89%11%88%12%28%32%37%2%86%10%3%12%12%2%4%12%13%44%17%82%4%28%68%15%32%53%71%29%51%49%31%50%19%7%9%46%27%3%8%
 
13Andrew Horne?
334 Who Are Undecided or Who May Still Change MindAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Yes12%16%9%9%10%16%12%10%14%12%17%5%**13%2%13%7%13%12%12%**13%9%**18%17%****8%4%5%16%12%**9%13%21%6%13%11%13%12%8%9%11%20%9%11%11%14%**15%
No88%84%91%91%90%84%88%90%86%88%83%95%**87%98%87%93%87%88%88%**87%91%**82%83%****92%96%95%84%88%**91%87%79%94%87%89%87%88%92%91%89%80%91%89%89%86%**85%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Are Undecided or Who May Still Change Mind100%41%59%18%20%28%35%38%62%82%5%9%4%89%11%88%12%28%32%37%2%86%10%3%12%12%2%4%12%13%44%17%82%4%28%68%15%32%53%71%29%51%49%31%50%19%7%9%46%27%3%8%
 
14Marlene Galán-Woods?
334 Who Are Undecided or Who May Still Change MindAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Yes23%25%22%24%12%20%31%18%26%23%24%23%**24%15%24%18%23%19%27%**24%15%**25%32%****93%13%5%21%23%**21%23%33%19%23%23%22%22%14%15%20%45%12%9%24%26%**27%
No77%75%78%76%88%80%69%82%74%77%76%77%**76%85%76%82%77%81%73%**76%85%**75%68%****7%87%95%79%77%**79%77%67%81%77%77%78%78%86%85%80%55%88%91%76%74%**73%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Are Undecided or Who May Still Change Mind100%41%59%18%20%28%35%38%62%82%5%9%4%89%11%88%12%28%32%37%2%86%10%3%12%12%2%4%12%13%44%17%82%4%28%68%15%32%53%71%29%51%49%31%50%19%7%9%46%27%3%8%
 
15Amish Shah?
334 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Yes23%29%18%19%18%25%26%18%25%21%20%36%**24%16%22%30%23%21%26%**22%26%**29%18%****18%96%3%21%23%**21%22%12%31%20%23%21%25%11%22%16%42%7%13%31%12%**39%
No77%71%82%81%82%75%74%82%75%79%80%64%**76%84%78%70%77%79%74%**78%74%**71%82%****82%4%97%79%77%**79%78%88%69%80%77%79%75%89%78%84%58%93%87%69%88%**61%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%41%59%18%20%28%35%38%62%82%5%9%4%89%11%88%12%28%32%37%2%86%10%3%12%12%2%4%12%13%44%17%82%4%28%68%15%32%53%71%29%51%49%31%50%19%7%9%46%27%3%8%
 
16[imputed from zip code]
844 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyPartyIdeologyVoting MethodHouse VoteParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityType Of InterviewRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / CertainProbableDemocratUnaffiliVery LibLiberalModerateConservaEarly MaIn PersoDrop-boxO'CallagChernyKroemerHorneGalán-WoShahUndecideYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanOnlineSMS-to-WLandlineQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Unknown
Q16%6%5%0%4%9%9%2%9%6%**3%1%7%8%7%5%4%8%6%4%8%1%**9%6%**4%2%5%10%5%6%0%3%8%2%2%9%7%3%2%10%4%8%5%100%0%0%0%**0%
Q213%13%14%9%11%14%17%10%16%14%**13%18%12%6%13%10%12%10%15%20%11%10%**14%22%**11%9%4%8%14%13%12%14%13%8%14%15%14%12%6%19%11%14%16%0%100%0%0%**0%
Q342%43%41%45%42%42%40%43%40%42%**45%34%44%45%43%45%46%44%42%35%44%44%**38%55%**51%50%51%38%39%42%45%35%44%37%41%44%44%38%49%36%37%47%39%0%0%100%0%**0%
Q428%28%29%37%33%25%22%35%23%29%**26%25%27%23%27%30%30%25%26%34%26%35%**29%7%**30%26%23%32%34%27%29%31%27%38%33%22%26%34%30%29%35%24%25%0%0%0%100%**0%
Q52%2%2%2%0%1%4%1%2%2%**2%3%2%2%2%3%0%3%1%2%2%0%**1%2%**0%6%1%3%1%2%1%3%2%2%0%3%2%1%0%2%0%2%5%0%0%0%0%**0%
Unknown9%8%10%7%10%10%9%8%9%7%**10%20%8%16%9%6%8%9%10%4%9%9%**7%9%**4%7%16%8%6%9%12%14%6%14%10%6%7%12%14%4%12%5%10%0%0%0%0%**100%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%46%54%23%21%23%33%44%56%81%4%9%6%90%10%58%28%14%26%44%10%86%11%2%15%13%4%7%13%18%30%20%79%10%27%64%17%34%49%64%36%47%53%37%46%17%6%13%42%28%2%9%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.