| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27151 |
| Incumbent Democrats Biden, Jacobs Well Ahead in California's 51st; Trump's Convictions and Trials, Biden's Mexico Policy Have Subtle Impacts:
Incumbent Democrats Joe Biden and Sara Jacobs both easily win their respective November re-election bids for President and US Representative in elections held today in California's 51st Congressional District, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for KGTV-TV 10 News and the San Diego Union-Tribune. Biden defeats Trump by 21 points today, 54% to 33%, with 8% of likely voters saying they will vote for a candidate from another party and 2% saying they will not vote in the race for President. Just 3% say they are undecided, an unsurprisingly small number given the universal name recognition of both major party candidates. 90% of Biden voters and 87% of Trump voters say they'll definitely vote for their candidate; just 8% of Biden's and 10% of Trump's voters say there is a chance they might change their minds. That's decidedly not the case among those voters considering a 3rd-party candidate: fully 50% of them say they may change their mind, with just 40% saying they will definitely vote for their candidate. In the race for US House of Representatives, incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs runs in-line with the current President, taking 54% and winning her second term in office in an election today. Republican Bill Wells, the mayor of El Cajon, runs in-line with the former President, taking 32% of the vote. 3% say they will not cast a ballot in this contest; 11% say they are undecided. 3% of those who say they will vote for Donald Trump, as well as 4% of those who will vote for Joe Biden and 14% of those who plan to vote for a third party candidate say Trump's conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records have changed who they support for President – suggesting the current level of third-party support is closely connected to the recently completed New York City trial. 54% of all voters (65% of Biden's compared to 49% of Trump's) say the convictions don't change who they vote for, but do make them more supportive of their candidate. 6% of all voters (11% of Trump's, 3% of Biden's) say the convictions don't change their vote but make them less supportive of their candidate. Another 5% (3% of Trump's voters, 5% of Biden's) say it makes them less likely to vote at all. 27% overall, including 32% of Trump's voters and 22% of Biden's, say it doesn't affect their voting plans at all. 14% of likely voters, including 10% of Trump voters, 14% of Biden voters, and 22% of third-party voters each say a potential Trump trial on 2020 election interference could potentially impact their vote; 82% say it would not. 3% of likely voters, including 3% of both Trump and Biden voters but 13% of third-party voters, say Biden's new restrictions on asylum-seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border change who they will vote for. 42% of voters say this does not change who they vote for, but make them more supportive of their respective candidate, including essentially equal numbers of Biden and Trump supporters. 10% of voters say it does not change their vote but makes them less supportive of their candidate. 4% say the restrictions make them less likely to vote at all; 38% say it will not affect their voting plans. Fully crosstabbed results follow ... |
| About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 adults from California's 51st Congressional District 06/10/24 through 06/14/24. Of the adults, 607 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 557 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (45% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, using telephone sample of registered voters purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Respondents unreachable on a landline telephone (55% of likely voters) were shown the survey questions on the display of their smartphone, laptop or tablet, using online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to targets for gender, age, race, and recalled 2020 vote. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of California? |
| 650 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent < 18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Wells | Jacobs | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Yes | 93% | 94% | 92% | 90% | 89% | 95% | 100% | 89% | 98% | 95% | 88% | 91% | 92% | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 94% | 97% | 94% | 99% | 95% | 93% | 96% | 94% | 97% | 93% | 95% | 98% | 99% | 86% | 92% | 96% | 84% | 92% | 98% | 93% | 93% | 98% | 85% | 89% | 100% |
| No | 6% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 0% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5% | 3% | 6% | 0% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 14% | 10% | 0% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 49% | 51% | 26% | 26% | 23% | 25% | 52% | 48% | 69% | 17% | 13% | 26% | 73% | 73% | 19% | 32% | 54% | 33% | 54% | 8% | 28% | 46% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 35% | 14% | 16% | 29% | 35% | 30% | 29% | 54% | 16% | 39% | 45% | 20% | 37% | 43% | 39% | 59% | 59% | 41% | 59% | 41% |
| 2 | California will elect a President of the United States and members of Congress in November. Are you not interested in politics and will not vote? Not sure whether you will or won't have time to vote? Almost certain you'll find time to vote? Or absolutely 100% certain you will vote? |
| 607 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent < 18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Wells | Jacobs | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Not Interested / Will Not Vote | 4% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 3% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 2% |
| Not Sure | 5% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 16% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 3% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 9% | 5% | 4% |
| Almost Certain | 19% | 18% | 19% | 22% | 23% | 12% | 17% | 22% | 15% | 18% | 19% | 23% | 21% | 18% | 0% | 100% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 16% | 41% | 17% | 17% | 25% | 17% | 26% | 21% | 15% | 12% | 22% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 24% | 13% | 20% | 18% | 18% | 20% | 21% | 16% |
| 100% Certain | 73% | 75% | 72% | 63% | 69% | 84% | 77% | 66% | 80% | 78% | 70% | 54% | 68% | 75% | 100% | 0% | 81% | 82% | 82% | 84% | 59% | 76% | 78% | 65% | 75% | 66% | 71% | 82% | 88% | 70% | 71% | 85% | 79% | 79% | 66% | 74% | 75% | 61% | 70% | 81% | 71% | 75% | 79% | 64% | 70% | 78% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 25% | 25% | 24% | 27% | 49% | 51% | 70% | 17% | 13% | 26% | 73% | 73% | 19% | 32% | 54% | 33% | 54% | 8% | 28% | 47% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 35% | 14% | 16% | 30% | 35% | 31% | 31% | 57% | 14% | 39% | 47% | 18% | 37% | 45% | 39% | 59% | 62% | 38% | 56% | 44% |
 | If the election for US House of Representatives in California's 51st Congressional District were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (Candidate names rotated) Republican Bill Wells? Or Democrat Sara Jacobs? |
| 557 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent < 18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Wells | Jacobs | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Bill Wells (R) | 32% | 39% | 26% | 36% | 21% | 36% | 38% | 28% | 37% | 34% | 30% | 28% | 30% | 33% | 33% | 31% | 100% | 0% | 82% | 3% | 32% | 81% | 6% | 31% | 83% | 64% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 73% | 28% | 4% | 83% | 6% | 34% | 31% | 33% | 29% | 27% | 38% | 29% | 35% | 35% | 26% | 27% | 39% |
| Sara Jacobs (D) | 54% | 49% | 59% | 39% | 65% | 56% | 54% | 52% | 55% | 53% | 55% | 58% | 56% | 54% | 55% | 48% | 0% | 100% | 2% | 89% | 50% | 7% | 88% | 42% | 6% | 21% | 52% | 83% | 97% | 14% | 52% | 91% | 3% | 84% | 46% | 49% | 60% | 50% | 57% | 53% | 58% | 52% | 57% | 50% | 54% | 54% |
| Will Not Cast a Ballot | 3% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 2% |
| Undecided | 11% | 8% | 13% | 20% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 15% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 6% | 16% | 9% | 4% | 24% | 10% | 15% | 13% | 8% | 1% | 12% | 13% | 4% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 7% | 17% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 17% | 15% | 5% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 28% | 48% | 52% | 73% | 16% | 11% | 25% | 74% | 80% | 20% | 32% | 54% | 33% | 54% | 8% | 28% | 49% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 35% | 15% | 18% | 30% | 35% | 33% | 32% | 59% | 13% | 39% | 48% | 16% | 37% | 46% | 39% | 60% | 66% | 34% | 55% | 45% |
| 4 | And if you were filling out your ballot for President of the United States right now, who would you vote for? Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Joe Biden? Or another candidate? |
| 557 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent < 18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Wells | Jacobs | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Donald Trump | 33% | 39% | 28% | 41% | 27% | 32% | 34% | 34% | 33% | 34% | 31% | 31% | 35% | 32% | 34% | 30% | 84% | 2% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 83% | 5% | 32% | 85% | 67% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 75% | 28% | 3% | 90% | 5% | 45% | 36% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 37% | 32% | 34% | 34% | 31% | 32% | 35% |
| Joe Biden | 54% | 49% | 59% | 42% | 56% | 58% | 59% | 49% | 58% | 54% | 56% | 55% | 52% | 55% | 57% | 42% | 6% | 89% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 89% | 37% | 7% | 17% | 55% | 84% | 94% | 12% | 55% | 90% | 2% | 86% | 45% | 51% | 59% | 48% | 59% | 53% | 55% | 53% | 57% | 49% | 51% | 58% |
| Another Candidate | 8% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 15% | 8% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 4% | 5% | 18% | 2% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 12% | 8% | 6% |
| Will Not Cast a Ballot | 2% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 0% |
| Undecided | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 28% | 48% | 52% | 73% | 16% | 11% | 25% | 74% | 80% | 20% | 32% | 54% | 33% | 54% | 8% | 28% | 49% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 35% | 15% | 18% | 30% | 35% | 33% | 32% | 59% | 13% | 39% | 48% | 16% | 37% | 46% | 39% | 60% | 66% | 34% | 55% | 45% |
| 5 | Will you definitely vote for that candidate? Or is there a chance you might change your mind? |
| 530 Voting For a Candidate For President | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent < 18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Wells | Jacobs | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Definitely Vote For That Candidate | 85% | 87% | 83% | 74% | 81% | 92% | 90% | 78% | 91% | 86% | 84% | 78% | 80% | 86% | 87% | 74% | 88% | 88% | 87% | 90% | 40% | 87% | 87% | 80% | 88% | 87% | 84% | 83% | 88% | 87% | 84% | 86% | 92% | 84% | 86% | 81% | 87% | 79% | 86% | 85% | 88% | 83% | 87% | 80% | 78% | 93% |
| May Change My Mind | 12% | 10% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 7% | 9% | 16% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 19% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 20% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 50% | 12% | 10% | 15% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 7% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 19% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 10% | 16% | 17% | 7% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 4% | 3% | 12% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Voting For a Candidate For President | 100% | 49% | 51% | 22% | 25% | 25% | 29% | 47% | 53% | 72% | 17% | 11% | 24% | 75% | 82% | 18% | 33% | 55% | 35% | 57% | 8% | 29% | 51% | 19% | 13% | 17% | 34% | 15% | 19% | 30% | 34% | 34% | 32% | 60% | 13% | 39% | 48% | 16% | 37% | 47% | 39% | 60% | 67% | 33% | 53% | 47% |
| 6 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President? |
| 557 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent < 18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Wells | Jacobs | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Strongly Approve | 29% | 29% | 28% | 22% | 22% | 32% | 38% | 22% | 35% | 30% | 28% | 25% | 28% | 29% | 30% | 23% | 4% | 50% | 3% | 52% | 1% | 5% | 50% | 15% | 9% | 6% | 26% | 35% | 64% | 8% | 26% | 51% | 3% | 46% | 26% | 28% | 30% | 23% | 36% | 27% | 33% | 26% | 34% | 21% | 23% | 37% |
| Somewhat Approve | 26% | 23% | 30% | 32% | 30% | 26% | 19% | 31% | 23% | 26% | 27% | 28% | 28% | 27% | 26% | 27% | 7% | 38% | 6% | 41% | 19% | 10% | 36% | 28% | 12% | 13% | 29% | 40% | 32% | 12% | 29% | 36% | 3% | 41% | 22% | 26% | 28% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 25% | 28% | 26% | 29% | 32% | 20% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 10% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 9% | 5% | 13% | 7% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 18% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 42% | 8% | 8% | 15% | 6% | 18% | 10% | 14% | 1% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 6% | 17% | 13% | 6% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 33% | 38% | 29% | 34% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 34% | 33% | 34% | 31% | 31% | 34% | 33% | 35% | 29% | 81% | 4% | 84% | 1% | 35% | 76% | 5% | 39% | 72% | 62% | 32% | 9% | 3% | 66% | 32% | 6% | 85% | 5% | 39% | 33% | 32% | 37% | 27% | 36% | 32% | 34% | 33% | 32% | 32% | 35% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 28% | 48% | 52% | 73% | 16% | 11% | 25% | 74% | 80% | 20% | 32% | 54% | 33% | 54% | 8% | 28% | 49% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 35% | 15% | 18% | 30% | 35% | 33% | 32% | 59% | 13% | 39% | 48% | 16% | 37% | 46% | 39% | 60% | 66% | 34% | 55% | 45% |
| 7 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump did when he was President? |
| 557 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent < 18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Wells | Jacobs | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Strongly Approve | 27% | 31% | 22% | 30% | 18% | 26% | 32% | 24% | 29% | 27% | 28% | 25% | 24% | 28% | 29% | 17% | 68% | 1% | 75% | 0% | 10% | 66% | 4% | 25% | 73% | 46% | 23% | 7% | 0% | 58% | 23% | 3% | 76% | 3% | 34% | 31% | 22% | 29% | 23% | 28% | 23% | 29% | 27% | 25% | 22% | 33% |
| Somewhat Approve | 12% | 13% | 10% | 17% | 14% | 7% | 9% | 15% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 18% | 9% | 9% | 22% | 20% | 4% | 22% | 3% | 15% | 20% | 5% | 16% | 16% | 23% | 14% | 0% | 2% | 20% | 14% | 1% | 18% | 6% | 18% | 11% | 10% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 17% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 7% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 13% | 13% | 12% | 18% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 16% | 9% | 13% | 9% | 17% | 17% | 11% | 10% | 22% | 5% | 18% | 2% | 16% | 27% | 4% | 16% | 15% | 1% | 13% | 12% | 17% | 17% | 8% | 12% | 17% | 5% | 15% | 9% | 17% | 10% | 12% | 20% | 7% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 7% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 48% | 42% | 55% | 35% | 54% | 54% | 49% | 45% | 52% | 47% | 54% | 46% | 42% | 51% | 51% | 38% | 7% | 77% | 1% | 80% | 48% | 9% | 74% | 44% | 9% | 15% | 50% | 75% | 81% | 12% | 50% | 78% | 0% | 75% | 37% | 40% | 58% | 43% | 45% | 53% | 46% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 46% | 52% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 28% | 48% | 52% | 73% | 16% | 11% | 25% | 74% | 80% | 20% | 32% | 54% | 33% | 54% | 8% | 28% | 49% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 35% | 15% | 18% | 30% | 35% | 33% | 32% | 59% | 13% | 39% | 48% | 16% | 37% | 46% | 39% | 60% | 66% | 34% | 55% | 45% |
| 8 | Donald Trump was convicted by a New York City jury of 34 counts of falsifying business records on May 30th. Does this change who you support for President? Not change who you support, but makes you more supportive of your preferred candidate? Not change who you support, but makes you less supportive of your preferred candidate? Make you less likely to vote at all? Or not affect your voting plans or preferences at all? |
| 557 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent < 18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Wells | Jacobs | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Changes Who You Support | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 13% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 4% |
| Not Change / But More Supportive | 54% | 54% | 55% | 48% | 46% | 56% | 66% | 47% | 61% | 55% | 56% | 46% | 51% | 55% | 56% | 48% | 49% | 64% | 49% | 65% | 33% | 43% | 64% | 49% | 51% | 51% | 48% | 55% | 73% | 51% | 48% | 65% | 48% | 61% | 62% | 52% | 54% | 56% | 50% | 58% | 51% | 56% | 60% | 45% | 43% | 69% |
| Not Change / But Less Supportive | 6% | 7% | 6% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 9% | 15% | 2% | 4% | 14% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 13% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 11% | 10% | 3% |
| Less Likely To Vote At All | 5% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 10% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 3% |
| Not Affect Voting Plans | 27% | 29% | 26% | 20% | 38% | 33% | 20% | 29% | 26% | 27% | 26% | 36% | 33% | 26% | 28% | 24% | 30% | 24% | 32% | 22% | 37% | 29% | 24% | 33% | 17% | 26% | 35% | 31% | 21% | 22% | 35% | 25% | 29% | 25% | 21% | 27% | 30% | 26% | 25% | 31% | 28% | 27% | 28% | 27% | 33% | 21% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 28% | 48% | 52% | 73% | 16% | 11% | 25% | 74% | 80% | 20% | 32% | 54% | 33% | 54% | 8% | 28% | 49% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 35% | 15% | 18% | 30% | 35% | 33% | 32% | 59% | 13% | 39% | 48% | 16% | 37% | 46% | 39% | 60% | 66% | 34% | 55% | 45% |
| 9 | Donald Trump could face trial before the election on charges he conspired to interfere in the 2020 election. Do you expect that trial or its outcome to affect your vote or your likelihood of voting in November? |
| 557 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent < 18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Wells | Jacobs | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Potentially, Depending On The Outcome | 14% | 13% | 15% | 22% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 16% | 13% | 13% | 18% | 15% | 14% | 10% | 14% | 22% | 18% | 13% | 10% | 17% | 12% | 16% | 6% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 9% | 15% | 12% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 18% | 12% | 16% | 13% | 13% | 17% | 17% | 10% |
| Would Not Affect My Vote | 82% | 82% | 82% | 76% | 81% | 83% | 88% | 79% | 85% | 82% | 84% | 81% | 82% | 83% | 84% | 74% | 81% | 82% | 86% | 84% | 64% | 79% | 85% | 83% | 83% | 82% | 80% | 91% | 85% | 82% | 80% | 88% | 80% | 85% | 78% | 80% | 85% | 84% | 78% | 85% | 78% | 85% | 85% | 76% | 78% | 87% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 0% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 28% | 48% | 52% | 73% | 16% | 11% | 25% | 74% | 80% | 20% | 32% | 54% | 33% | 54% | 8% | 28% | 49% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 35% | 15% | 18% | 30% | 35% | 33% | 32% | 59% | 13% | 39% | 48% | 16% | 37% | 46% | 39% | 60% | 66% | 34% | 55% | 45% |
| 10 | President Biden has ordered new restrictions on asylum-seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border. Does this change who you support for President? Not change who you support, but makes you more supportive of your preferred candidate? Not change who you support, but makes you less supportive of your preferred candidate? Make you less likely to vote at all? Or not affect your voting plans or preferences at all? |
| 557 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent < 18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Wells | Jacobs | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Changes Who You Support | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| Not Change / But More Supportive | 42% | 44% | 39% | 35% | 32% | 36% | 61% | 33% | 49% | 40% | 49% | 40% | 43% | 41% | 41% | 45% | 47% | 43% | 45% | 44% | 22% | 42% | 45% | 36% | 39% | 48% | 44% | 36% | 37% | 44% | 44% | 37% | 46% | 42% | 49% | 39% | 42% | 49% | 44% | 38% | 37% | 44% | 47% | 32% | 29% | 57% |
| Not Change / But Less Supportive | 10% | 6% | 13% | 18% | 14% | 3% | 5% | 16% | 4% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 12% | 7% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 14% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 13% | 9% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 15% | 15% | 4% |
| Less Likely To Vote At All | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 0% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 6% |
| Not Affect Voting Plans | 38% | 40% | 35% | 34% | 45% | 48% | 25% | 40% | 36% | 39% | 30% | 39% | 39% | 37% | 40% | 28% | 37% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 47% | 38% | 34% | 46% | 40% | 35% | 38% | 43% | 35% | 37% | 38% | 39% | 34% | 37% | 32% | 37% | 39% | 37% | 31% | 44% | 40% | 36% | 39% | 37% | 45% | 29% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 9% | 6% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 28% | 48% | 52% | 73% | 16% | 11% | 25% | 74% | 80% | 20% | 32% | 54% | 33% | 54% | 8% | 28% | 49% | 21% | 13% | 16% | 35% | 15% | 18% | 30% | 35% | 33% | 32% | 59% | 13% | 39% | 48% | 16% | 37% | 46% | 39% | 60% | 66% | 34% | 55% | 45% |