Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17384

On Day Ballots are Mailed to Oregon Voters, Jump Ball in Open Governor Contest; Democrat Wyden Sails to Re-Election in US Senate:

Oregon voters willing to re-elect Democratic Senator Ron Wyden by a 22-point margin are not so sure about putting another Democrat in the statehouse in Salem, even one who has been there before. Today, in research conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland, SurveyUSA finds Democrat (former Governor) John Kitzhaber at 46%, Republican Chris Dudley at 45%. The contest should be characterized as even; Kitzhaber's nominal 1-point advantage may or may not be significant. Oregon voters will receive mailed ballots starting tomorrow.

In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls:
* Democrat Kitzhaber has polled at 40%, 44%, 43% and today at 46%, his strongest showing, though the poll results are all within a narrow band.
* Republican Dudley has polled at 47%, 46%, 49%, and today at 45%, his weakest showing, though the poll results are all within a narrow band.
* Kitzhaber appears to have traction among women and seniors. Dudley's support has eroded slightly among Independent voters, compared to SurveyUSA's 09/15/10 tracking poll, but only so far as to bring the Republican's advantage among Independents back into single digits, where it was in SurveyUSA polling in June and July.

In the contest for US Senate, incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden polls at 56%, up from 51% in June, 53% in July, and 54% in September. Republican challenger Jim Huffman polls at 34% today, down from 38% in June and September and 35% in July. 1 in 4 Republicans cross-over to vote for the Democrat.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Oregon adults 10/12/10 through 10/14/10. Of them, 783 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 652 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November general election. Incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski is constitutionally term limited to two consecutive terms. The election is 100% by mail; ballots will be mailed today, 10/15/10.

[Candidate names rotated]
If you were filling out your ballot in for Oregon Governor today, who would you vote for? Republican Chris Dudley? Democrat John Kitzhaber? Constitution Party candidate Greg Kord? Or Libertarian Wes Wagner?

652 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income		Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $50K	> $50K	Portland	Rest of
Dudley (R)	45%	51%	40%	46%	44%	46%	44%	44%	46%	45%	**	**	35%	83%	18%	46%	81%	41%	7%	87%	12%	53%	50%	38%	54%	58%	48%	35%	75%	30%	60%	31%	42%	49%	43%	49%
Kitzhaber (D)	46%	40%	52%	45%	42%	48%	50%	44%	49%	46%	**	**	50%	12%	76%	37%	13%	51%	85%	4%	83%	34%	38%	54%	36%	33%	46%	56%	16%	63%	32%	62%	48%	44%	48%	43%
Kord (C)	1%	0%	1%	0%	1%	1%	2%	0%	1%	1%	**	**	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	2%	0%	0%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%
Wagner (L)	3%	5%	1%	3%	6%	2%	1%	5%	1%	3%	**	**	5%	3%	1%	9%	3%	1%	5%	7%	1%	5%	0%	4%	2%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	4%	1%	4%	3%	4%	2%
Undecided	5%	4%	6%	6%	7%	4%	3%	7%	3%	5%	**	**	9%	2%	5%	7%	2%	6%	3%	2%	4%	7%	11%	4%	6%	6%	2%	5%	5%	3%	4%	5%	6%	3%	5%	5%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	49%	51%	18%	29%	31%	23%	47%	53%	90%	1%	4%	5%	32%	45%	21%	33%	36%	25%	29%	42%	18%	11%	55%	45%	37%	19%	43%	34%	62%	52%	45%	37%	63%	65%	35%

[Candidate names rotated]
Oregon voters will also elect a United States Senator. If you were filling out your ballot in for United States Senator today, who would you vote for? Republican Jim Huffman? Democrat Ron Wyden? Working Families Party candidate Bruce Cronk? Libertarian Marc Delphine? Or Progressive Party candidate Rick Staggenborg?

652 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				College Grad		Attend Religious Service			Abortion		Own a Gun?		Income		Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Yes	No	Regularl	Occasion	Almost N	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	< $50K	> $50K	Portland	Rest of
Huffman (R)	34%	42%	26%	25%	37%	37%	33%	32%	36%	33%	**	**	34%	71%	8%	34%	67%	27%	4%	80%	3%	40%	25%	31%	39%	44%	39%	24%	59%	21%	46%	21%	28%	38%	31%	40%
Wyden (D)	56%	50%	62%	60%	47%	57%	64%	52%	60%	57%	**	**	48%	23%	85%	48%	24%	64%	89%	12%	92%	45%	58%	60%	51%	43%	55%	68%	31%	72%	42%	73%	62%	53%	60%	50%
Cronk (WF)	2%	2%	3%	1%	5%	1%	1%	4%	1%	2%	**	**	4%	1%	1%	6%	2%	2%	3%	2%	1%	4%	2%	2%	2%	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	3%	1%	2%	2%	3%	1%
Delphine (L)	2%	3%	0%	2%	3%	1%	0%	3%	1%	2%	**	**	4%	2%	0%	4%	2%	0%	2%	3%	0%	3%	2%	3%	0%	2%	1%	2%	2%	1%	3%	0%	1%	2%	2%	2%
Staggenborg (P)	2%	1%	3%	6%	1%	1%	1%	3%	1%	2%	**	**	3%	1%	3%	1%	1%	3%	1%	1%	3%	1%	1%	1%	3%	4%	0%	1%	2%	2%	3%	1%	2%	2%	1%	4%
Undecided	4%	2%	6%	5%	7%	3%	1%	6%	2%	4%	**	**	7%	2%	2%	7%	3%	4%	1%	2%	2%	7%	12%	3%	5%	5%	2%	3%	4%	2%	3%	4%	5%	3%	5%	3%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	49%	51%	18%	29%	31%	23%	47%	53%	90%	1%	4%	5%	32%	45%	21%	33%	36%	25%	29%	42%	18%	11%	55%	45%	37%	19%	43%	34%	62%	52%	45%	37%	63%	65%	35%

** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.