Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #28000
 
One Month Until Early Voting Begins, Republicans Gain Ground, DFL Falls Back in Statewide Minnesota Contests; Senate Race Now Dead Even:

Republican candidates are on the upswing, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, KAAL-TV Rochester, and WDIO-TV Duluth. While DFL candidates remain in the lead for Governor and Secretary of State, Republicans now have a lead in the race for State Auditor, an edge in the Attorney General race, and have tied up the race to replace Tina Smith in the United States Senate.

Looking first at the election for Governor, today SurveyUSA shows DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar at 47%, Republican Lisa Demuth at 40%; Green Party candidate Steve Young is at 3%; 9% of likely voters are undecided. Compared to one month ago, Klobuchar is down 5 points, Demuth is up 4. There is notable movement toward Demuth among both men, where Klobuchar had led by 10 points, now leads by 1, and among independent voters, where Klobuchar had led by 17, now leads by 1. Among voters age 50 to 64, Klobuchar had led by 12, now trails by 6. Klobuchar is helped by double-digit leads in both the greater Twin Cities and in Northeastern Minnesota, by her 31-point lead among moderates, and by the fact she isn't trailing among independents, which is not the case for most of the other DFL candidates in our polling today.

The US Senate race is now tied, with Republican Michele Tafoya and DFL candidate Peggy Flanagan each at 42%, and two third-party candidates, Libertarian Rebecca Whiting and independent Marisa Simonetti, each at 2%; 12% of likely voters say they are undecided. Since last month, Tafoya has gained 1 point and Flanagan has lost 4 points. Tafoya has increased her lead among 50 to 64-year-olds from 5 to 15 points, which is somewhat offset by Flanagan closing her gap against Tafoya from 8 points to 2 points among voters 65+. Tafoya is leading by 83 points among Republicans, while Flanagan is leading by 83 points among Democrats – while independents break for the Republican by a 14-point margin, 43% to 29%. One month ago, Tafoya led by a single point among independent voters.

Because the candidates for Attorney General were both effectively known before the primary election took place, SurveyUSA has polled this contest five times over the past three month, rather than the two polls conducted for each of the other offices. Incumbent DFL candidate Keith Ellison led Republican Ron Schutz in the first three polls, then was tied with him last month; today, Schutz gains 2 points as Ellison holds steady, putting the Republican ahead, 45% to 43%, with 12% of likely voters undecided. Ellison, first elected Attorney General in 2018 after serving 6 terms in Congress, has consistently polled between 42% and 44%; Schutz, a trial attorney, initially ranged between 36% and 38% before climbing to tie Ellison at 43% last month and now to the lead at 45%.

For Secretary of State, incumbent DFL candidate Steve Simon had led by 7 points last month, now leads by 4, taking 40% against Republican Tad Jude, at 36%. 3% say they will vote for Green Party candidate Seth Kuhl-Stennes; 2% for Libertarian George "Chip" Tangen, while 20% are undecided. Jude is up 2 points from a month ago, Simon down 1. In last month's polling, SurveyUSA did not explicitly name the third-party candidates in this contest, where "another candidate" took a combined 4% of the vote, vs. the combined 5% we see today. The high number of undecideds (steady at 20%), combined with the relatively lower profile of this race means any outcome will be possible.

Finally, looking further down-ballot to the open-seat election for State Auditor, Republican Scott Jensen today leads DFL candidate Zach Filipovich by a 7-point margin, 43% to 36%, with 4% saying they will vote for Forward Independence candidate Jay Reeves, and 17% saying they are undecided. last month, Jensen and Filipovich were tied at 39%, with 3% voting for a then unnamed third-party candidate, and 19% undecided. (Parenthetically, SurveyUSA observes that naming third-party candidates, especially in down-ballot contests that many voters are not closely following, tends to over-state their actual performance on election day.)

Fully crosstabbed results follow...
 
About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from the state of Minnesota 09/09/26 through 09/14/26 using nonprobability sample of internet panel members provided by Cint USA. Of the adults, 800 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 654 were identified as being probably or definitely likely to vote in the November general election and asked the substantive questions which follow. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership. In an alternate scenario, SurveyUSA also included less-likely voters – the 12% of registered voters who said they might or might not vote in November – in the likely voter universe. Adding those less-likely voters unsurprisingly increases the number of undecided voters; it has no effect on the overall lead percentages in the gubernatorial, US Senate, Secretary of State, and Auditor contests, and tightens the Republican's lead for Attorney General from two points to one.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of Minnesota?
900 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ParentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop Issue2024 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalProbableDefiniteInflatioGas PricHealth CImmigratFraudTrumpHarrisHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Yes89%93%85%81%89%88%99%85%93%90%90%97%92%86%96%94%88%92%95%95%88%93%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%97%96%84%89%93%80%92%92%93%77%90%88%89%87%89%92%94%
No9%5%13%14%9%11%1%12%6%9%9%3%7%13%4%5%10%6%4%5%10%5%-------2%4%13%10%6%16%6%7%5%20%7%10%10%10%10%7%5%
Not Sure2%1%3%5%1%1%0%3%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%0%2%2%2%0%2%2%-------1%0%3%2%1%3%2%1%2%3%3%2%1%3%1%1%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%50%50%29%24%25%22%53%47%30%68%30%36%25%12%22%31%18%10%35%31%28%19%63%36%6%13%7%13%39%41%30%33%37%26%35%39%72%28%28%46%27%59%13%14%14%
 
2Minnesota will hold a general election for Governor, for United States Senate, and for other offices in November. Many people don't have the time to vote in every election. Thinking ahead to November, are you ... ?
800 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ParentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop Issue2024 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalProbableDefiniteInflatioGas PricHealth CImmigratFraudTrumpHarrisHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Unlikely To Have Time6%7%5%12%7%5%0%9%3%4%7%3%7%4%9%6%7%1%3%7%7%2%0%0%-----5%4%12%6%2%11%4%4%5%10%10%4%6%5%13%5%4%
Might Or Might Not Find Time12%11%14%21%18%6%4%19%5%17%10%11%11%13%7%10%16%10%10%9%16%10%0%0%12%19%16%10%3%11%8%15%15%8%19%13%8%9%21%9%14%13%11%9%18%13%
Will Probably Vote19%18%20%27%18%21%10%23%15%23%17%19%12%27%23%18%23%17%11%20%23%15%100%0%23%29%21%11%14%20%15%22%19%16%24%20%15%16%29%23%16%19%19%20%18%19%
Will Definitely Vote63%64%62%41%57%68%86%49%77%55%67%67%71%56%61%66%55%71%76%64%55%73%0%100%66%53%63%79%83%64%73%51%60%75%45%63%73%70%41%58%66%62%65%59%58%64%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%52%48%27%24%25%25%50%50%31%68%32%37%24%13%24%30%18%11%37%30%29%19%63%36%6%13%7%13%42%44%29%33%39%23%36%40%75%25%28%45%27%58%13%14%15%
 
If the November election for Minnesota Governor were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
654 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ParentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop Issue2024 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalProbableDefiniteInflatioGas PricHealth CImmigratFraudTrumpHarrisHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Lisa Demuth (R)40%44%36%25%38%49%45%31%47%40%40%87%3%37%82%81%25%8%2%81%25%5%38%41%31%26%20%78%86%84%5%53%39%33%37%41%41%43%31%32%38%53%38%42%50%37%
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)47%45%50%52%45%43%50%48%47%43%50%7%93%38%6%12%56%83%93%10%56%87%36%51%59%46%60%17%9%8%85%36%48%55%44%48%48%48%46%54%50%36%52%38%34%47%
Steven Young (G)3%4%2%8%3%0%2%6%1%5%2%1%1%9%7%0%5%1%5%3%5%2%5%3%1%7%9%3%1%1%3%5%1%4%6%4%1%2%7%5%3%2%3%6%0%4%
Undecided9%7%12%16%13%8%2%15%5%13%8%4%3%16%5%7%14%8%0%6%14%5%20%6%9%21%11%3%5%6%7%6%12%9%13%8%9%7%16%9%9%9%6%14%15%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%52%48%22%22%27%29%44%56%29%70%34%37%24%14%24%29%20%12%38%29%31%23%77%37%6%12%7%14%43%47%26%32%43%20%37%43%79%21%28%46%27%59%13%13%15%
 
If the November election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
654 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ParentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop Issue2024 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalProbableDefiniteInflatioGas PricHealth CImmigratFraudTrumpHarrisHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Michele Tafoya (R)42%47%37%28%39%51%47%34%49%45%41%88%4%43%78%81%32%10%3%80%32%8%42%42%33%25%29%69%87%85%7%54%39%38%38%43%43%46%28%38%40%51%42%43%49%38%
Peggy Flanagan (DFL)42%39%45%47%40%36%45%43%41%37%44%5%87%29%8%7%47%74%93%7%47%81%27%46%50%40%51%24%5%5%77%33%43%46%40%38%46%41%45%44%46%32%46%34%33%41%
Rebecca Whiting (L)2%2%2%7%0%1%0%3%1%2%2%0%2%3%5%0%2%2%0%2%2%1%3%1%1%9%3%0%2%1%2%3%1%2%4%2%1%1%4%1%3%1%2%3%1%1%
Marisa Simonetti (I)2%2%1%2%2%0%3%2%2%2%2%0%0%6%1%1%3%1%3%1%3%2%2%2%0%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%3%2%3%0%1%4%2%1%2%1%3%2%3%
Undecided12%9%16%16%19%11%6%17%8%15%11%7%6%19%8%10%17%13%0%9%17%8%25%8%16%24%14%6%5%8%12%10%15%12%16%14%10%11%18%15%10%13%9%18%15%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%52%48%22%22%27%29%44%56%29%70%34%37%24%14%24%29%20%12%38%29%31%23%77%37%6%12%7%14%43%47%26%32%43%20%37%43%79%21%28%46%27%59%13%13%15%
 
If the November election for Minnesota Attorney General were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
654 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ParentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop Issue2024 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalProbableDefiniteInflatioGas PricHealth CImmigratFraudTrumpHarrisHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Ron Schutz (R)45%49%40%34%42%55%46%38%50%44%45%91%5%44%87%87%33%9%2%87%33%7%46%45%35%35%23%82%89%88%10%56%43%39%37%46%48%48%34%37%43%56%42%46%54%48%
Keith Ellison (DFL)43%42%45%49%41%36%46%45%41%40%45%5%87%34%11%7%47%75%98%8%47%84%36%45%47%52%65%16%7%7%78%34%41%50%48%42%42%41%50%50%45%32%46%40%31%42%
Undecided12%9%16%18%16%9%8%17%8%16%10%4%8%22%3%7%21%16%0%5%21%10%19%10%17%13%12%3%5%6%13%9%16%11%15%13%11%11%16%13%12%12%12%14%15%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%52%48%22%22%27%29%44%56%29%70%34%37%24%14%24%29%20%12%38%29%31%23%77%37%6%12%7%14%43%47%26%32%43%20%37%43%79%21%28%46%27%59%13%13%15%
 
6If the November election for Minnesota Secretary of State were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
654 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ParentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop Issue2024 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalProbableDefiniteInflatioGas PricHealth CImmigratFraudTrumpHarrisHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Tad Jude (R)36%40%31%27%29%43%40%28%41%32%37%79%4%27%80%70%17%9%3%74%17%7%34%36%25%32%19%78%74%73%5%50%34%28%31%36%37%37%29%30%35%43%34%33%44%39%
Steve Simon (DFL)40%38%42%38%38%35%47%38%41%38%41%4%82%31%8%9%43%70%88%9%43%77%23%45%47%47%54%14%11%9%74%33%38%45%37%40%41%41%34%46%41%32%44%33%31%38%
Seth Kuhl-Stennes (G)3%3%2%8%1%1%2%4%2%4%2%0%1%9%1%0%7%1%3%0%7%2%7%2%1%2%6%0%1%0%3%1%2%4%5%3%2%2%6%4%3%2%2%6%1%4%
George "Chip" Tangen (L)2%3%0%3%2%0%1%3%1%2%1%1%0%5%2%2%1%2%0%2%1%1%3%1%1%0%4%0%3%1%1%1%2%1%2%2%1%1%2%2%1%2%2%3%1%1%
Undecided20%16%24%25%29%21%9%27%15%24%19%16%12%28%9%19%31%18%6%15%31%13%33%16%27%20%18%8%11%17%17%15%23%21%26%19%19%18%29%19%21%21%19%25%23%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%52%48%22%22%27%29%44%56%29%70%34%37%24%14%24%29%20%12%38%29%31%23%77%37%6%12%7%14%43%47%26%32%43%20%37%43%79%21%28%46%27%59%13%13%15%
 
7If the November election for Minnesota State Auditor were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
654 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ParentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop Issue2024 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalProbableDefiniteInflatioGas PricHealth CImmigratFraudTrumpHarrisHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Scott Jensen (R)43%48%37%36%39%49%45%38%47%42%43%93%5%34%90%78%30%9%4%83%30%7%43%43%33%47%29%83%78%86%8%57%41%36%39%44%44%45%34%39%40%51%40%41%51%47%
Zach Filipovich (DFL)36%33%40%40%38%29%38%39%34%35%37%1%80%21%5%4%37%69%86%4%37%76%18%42%43%40%47%12%7%4%69%26%34%44%30%34%40%36%35%35%41%29%40%30%24%37%
Jay Reeves (FI)4%5%4%8%4%2%3%6%3%7%3%0%3%11%3%3%7%2%5%3%7%3%7%3%3%0%8%2%3%2%4%1%7%4%8%4%2%3%6%6%3%4%3%8%5%5%
Undecided17%15%20%16%18%20%14%17%17%16%17%6%12%33%2%15%25%20%5%10%25%14%31%13%21%13%16%3%12%9%19%15%19%17%22%18%14%15%25%21%16%15%17%20%20%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%52%48%22%22%27%29%44%56%29%70%34%37%24%14%24%29%20%12%38%29%31%23%77%37%6%12%7%14%43%47%26%32%43%20%37%43%79%21%28%46%27%59%13%13%15%
 
Which one issue will be most important to you in your votes this year? (issues rotated)
654 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ParentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop Issue2024 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalProbableDefiniteInflatioGas PricHealth CImmigratFraudTrumpHarrisHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Inflation / The Cost Of Living37%32%42%33%41%32%41%37%37%37%37%31%42%40%16%34%41%52%35%27%41%45%41%36%100%0%0%0%0%29%44%40%36%36%33%43%34%38%32%39%35%38%36%44%32%40%
War In Iran4%5%3%4%4%4%5%4%5%3%5%2%8%4%1%1%5%6%11%1%5%8%2%5%0%0%0%0%0%2%7%2%6%5%6%3%5%4%5%5%4%5%4%0%9%6%
Gas Prices6%8%3%11%6%4%3%9%4%5%6%5%8%3%11%5%4%5%4%7%4%4%9%5%0%100%0%0%0%4%7%6%5%6%10%3%6%5%9%6%7%4%6%6%7%4%
Health Care12%11%13%17%13%12%8%15%10%13%12%8%16%11%7%2%14%20%20%4%14%20%13%12%0%0%100%0%0%9%15%10%12%13%15%12%11%11%14%15%10%13%11%17%11%14%
Education2%1%3%4%5%1%0%5%1%5%1%1%2%2%1%1%4%2%2%1%4%2%4%2%0%0%0%0%0%1%2%2%2%3%4%2%2%2%5%2%3%2%3%1%3%3%
Jobs2%3%2%4%2%4%0%3%2%4%2%2%3%2%4%2%4%0%1%3%4%0%2%2%0%0%0%0%0%3%2%3%2%2%4%2%2%3%2%3%3%0%3%1%1%0%
Crime In Your Neighborhood4%4%4%4%5%7%1%4%4%5%4%5%2%5%7%7%3%0%4%7%3%2%6%3%0%0%0%0%0%5%3%3%4%4%3%4%5%4%5%7%4%1%6%0%0%2%
Abortion4%3%4%7%2%3%3%4%3%8%2%4%4%2%9%2%3%4%1%5%3%3%6%3%0%0%0%0%0%4%4%2%4%4%2%3%5%4%2%3%4%4%3%9%3%2%
Gun Control3%3%3%4%3%0%3%4%2%2%3%1%3%3%2%1%4%4%3%1%4%4%2%3%0%0%0%0%0%1%4%2%3%3%2%2%4%2%5%2%3%3%3%2%4%2%
Immigration7%10%4%7%8%6%6%8%6%7%7%13%3%5%16%12%3%1%5%14%3%3%4%8%0%0%0%100%0%14%1%12%3%6%4%8%7%7%6%6%9%5%7%7%8%6%
Fraud14%14%14%1%9%21%21%5%21%8%16%27%2%16%24%30%11%1%0%28%11%1%9%16%0%0%0%0%100%26%4%14%16%13%11%15%15%15%11%8%15%19%14%10%20%12%
Other4%4%3%1%2%3%7%1%5%2%4%1%5%5%1%1%3%2%15%1%3%7%1%4%0%0%0%0%0%2%5%3%4%4%7%3%3%4%3%5%3%4%3%1%1%9%
Not Sure1%1%2%2%1%2%1%1%1%2%1%1%2%1%0%0%1%4%1%0%1%2%2%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%2%1%2%1%0%2%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%52%48%22%22%27%29%44%56%29%70%34%37%24%14%24%29%20%12%38%29%31%23%77%37%6%12%7%14%43%47%26%32%43%20%37%43%79%21%28%46%27%59%13%13%15%