| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22266 |
| NC's 15 Electoral Votes Up For Grabs In 2016, But Democrat Hillary Clinton Has Slight Edge on Each GOP Contender, 18 Months Till Vote:
In head-to-head Presidential matchups between likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and 5 Republican hopefuls, North Carolina voters are effectively tied in 4 of the cases, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable North Carolina. Clinton defeats Scott Walker today by a 9-point margin, leads both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio by 5 points, Rand Paul by 4 points, and both Jeb Bush and "some other Republican" by a slim 2-point margin. Aside from Scott Walker, each result is within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. North Carolina went "red" in 2012, went "blue" in 2008. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,275 North Carolina adults 4/22/15 through 4/27/15. Of them, 1,123 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,070 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November 2016 election for President. Research conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. |
| 1 | If the November election for President were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted Cruz, who would you vote for? |
| 1070 November 2016 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | <6 Yrs | 6-10 Yrs | 11-20 Yr | >20 Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 47% | 44% | 50% | 51% | 46% | 47% | 45% | 48% | 47% | 36% | 86% | 46% | 12% | 82% | 41% | 21% | 56% | 82% | 49% | 51% | 49% | 46% | 45% | 43% | 52% | 48% | 45% | 50% | 44% | 49% | 43% | 41% | 55% | 49% |
| Ted Cruz (R) | 42% | 45% | 38% | 27% | 43% | 44% | 49% | 36% | 46% | 53% | 7% | 30% | 79% | 10% | 42% | 71% | 31% | 9% | 34% | 30% | 40% | 45% | 37% | 46% | 40% | 36% | 49% | 41% | 39% | 43% | 44% | 50% | 34% | 40% |
| Undecided | 11% | 10% | 12% | 21% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 15% | 7% | 11% | 7% | 24% | 9% | 8% | 17% | 8% | 13% | 9% | 17% | 19% | 10% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 8% | 16% | 7% | 10% | 17% | 9% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of November 2016 Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 19% | 27% | 32% | 22% | 46% | 54% | 71% | 20% | 5% | 31% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 42% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 19% | 62% | 22% | 34% | 44% | 42% | 32% | 26% | 28% | 72% | 36% | 18% | 31% | 16% |
| 2 | If the election for President were today, and the only two candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush, who would you vote for? |
| 1070 November 2016 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | <6 Yrs | 6-10 Yrs | 11-20 Yr | >20 Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 45% | 41% | 50% | 55% | 42% | 45% | 43% | 47% | 44% | 33% | 86% | 43% | 7% | 81% | 41% | 18% | 52% | 84% | 46% | 51% | 44% | 45% | 44% | 42% | 48% | 49% | 42% | 44% | 44% | 46% | 41% | 38% | 55% | 45% |
| Jeb Bush (R) | 43% | 47% | 39% | 29% | 44% | 46% | 51% | 37% | 48% | 54% | 8% | 40% | 85% | 11% | 40% | 71% | 34% | 10% | 39% | 31% | 44% | 45% | 40% | 47% | 41% | 37% | 49% | 45% | 37% | 45% | 47% | 48% | 32% | 49% |
| Undecided | 12% | 12% | 11% | 16% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 15% | 8% | 13% | 6% | 17% | 8% | 8% | 19% | 11% | 14% | 6% | 14% | 18% | 12% | 10% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 11% | 20% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of November 2016 Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 19% | 27% | 32% | 22% | 46% | 54% | 71% | 20% | 5% | 31% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 42% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 19% | 62% | 22% | 34% | 44% | 42% | 32% | 26% | 28% | 72% | 36% | 18% | 31% | 16% |
| 3 | What if the only two candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand Paul? |
| 1070 November 2016 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | <6 Yrs | 6-10 Yrs | 11-20 Yr | >20 Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 47% | 42% | 51% | 58% | 43% | 45% | 44% | 49% | 45% | 34% | 87% | 55% | 8% | 84% | 41% | 18% | 56% | 84% | 42% | 59% | 49% | 45% | 48% | 43% | 50% | 51% | 42% | 46% | 46% | 47% | 40% | 38% | 61% | 45% |
| Rand Paul (R) | 43% | 48% | 39% | 27% | 48% | 46% | 48% | 39% | 47% | 54% | 7% | 40% | 82% | 11% | 44% | 74% | 32% | 11% | 39% | 35% | 45% | 45% | 39% | 46% | 43% | 37% | 49% | 46% | 40% | 45% | 48% | 50% | 34% | 44% |
| Undecided | 10% | 10% | 10% | 16% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 6% | 4% | 10% | 5% | 16% | 8% | 12% | 5% | 19% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 13% | 11% | 7% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 15% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 5% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of November 2016 Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 19% | 27% | 32% | 22% | 46% | 54% | 71% | 20% | 5% | 31% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 42% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 19% | 62% | 22% | 34% | 44% | 42% | 32% | 26% | 28% | 72% | 36% | 18% | 31% | 16% |
| 4 | What if it were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Marco Rubio? |
| 1070 November 2016 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | <6 Yrs | 6-10 Yrs | 11-20 Yr | >20 Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 46% | 41% | 51% | 50% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 47% | 46% | 35% | 86% | 44% | 10% | 81% | 40% | 19% | 54% | 83% | 41% | 53% | 51% | 44% | 41% | 43% | 52% | 48% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 47% | 42% | 39% | 56% | 46% |
| Marco Rubio (R) | 41% | 47% | 36% | 32% | 40% | 44% | 49% | 36% | 46% | 52% | 6% | 35% | 79% | 10% | 42% | 70% | 31% | 9% | 40% | 30% | 41% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 39% | 35% | 45% | 46% | 38% | 42% | 45% | 49% | 32% | 43% |
| Undecided | 12% | 12% | 13% | 19% | 16% | 10% | 7% | 17% | 9% | 13% | 8% | 21% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 10% | 15% | 8% | 19% | 18% | 9% | 12% | 17% | 14% | 9% | 17% | 10% | 9% | 19% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of November 2016 Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 19% | 27% | 32% | 22% | 46% | 54% | 71% | 20% | 5% | 31% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 42% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 19% | 62% | 22% | 34% | 44% | 42% | 32% | 26% | 28% | 72% | 36% | 18% | 31% | 16% |
| 5 | What if it were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Scott Walker? |
| 1070 November 2016 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | <6 Yrs | 6-10 Yrs | 11-20 Yr | >20 Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 48% | 45% | 51% | 53% | 46% | 49% | 45% | 49% | 47% | 37% | 86% | 48% | 12% | 82% | 42% | 21% | 56% | 83% | 46% | 54% | 48% | 47% | 46% | 42% | 54% | 49% | 45% | 50% | 46% | 49% | 46% | 37% | 58% | 46% |
| Scott Walker (R) | 39% | 43% | 35% | 25% | 41% | 40% | 47% | 34% | 43% | 49% | 7% | 30% | 77% | 9% | 38% | 67% | 28% | 9% | 34% | 27% | 41% | 41% | 38% | 42% | 37% | 34% | 43% | 40% | 34% | 41% | 42% | 48% | 30% | 39% |
| Undecided | 13% | 12% | 14% | 22% | 13% | 12% | 8% | 17% | 10% | 14% | 6% | 21% | 11% | 9% | 20% | 12% | 16% | 8% | 21% | 19% | 11% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 9% | 17% | 12% | 11% | 20% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 15% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of November 2016 Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 19% | 27% | 32% | 22% | 46% | 54% | 71% | 20% | 5% | 31% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 42% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 19% | 62% | 22% | 34% | 44% | 42% | 32% | 26% | 28% | 72% | 36% | 18% | 31% | 16% |
| 6 | What if it were Democrat Hillary Clinton and some other Republican nominee? |
| 1070 November 2016 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Lived in NC | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | <6 Yrs | 6-10 Yrs | 11-20 Yr | >20 Yrs | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | Charlott | Greensbo | Raleigh | Southern | |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 44% | 42% | 47% | 53% | 41% | 44% | 40% | 46% | 42% | 32% | 82% | 63% | 9% | 82% | 34% | 20% | 52% | 76% | 32% | 51% | 48% | 43% | 48% | 39% | 46% | 49% | 41% | 40% | 43% | 45% | 41% | 38% | 53% | 42% |
| Some Other Republican | 42% | 44% | 39% | 28% | 41% | 45% | 49% | 36% | 47% | 53% | 8% | 30% | 81% | 12% | 39% | 68% | 33% | 11% | 38% | 33% | 39% | 44% | 40% | 43% | 41% | 36% | 45% | 46% | 34% | 44% | 45% | 46% | 34% | 45% |
| Undecided | 14% | 14% | 14% | 18% | 18% | 11% | 11% | 18% | 11% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 27% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 30% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 18% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 23% | 11% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 14% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of November 2016 Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 19% | 27% | 32% | 22% | 46% | 54% | 71% | 20% | 5% | 31% | 37% | 31% | 36% | 42% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 19% | 62% | 22% | 34% | 44% | 42% | 32% | 26% | 28% | 72% | 36% | 18% | 31% | 16% |