| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #9139 |
| Bilbray 45%, Busby 45%: In a special election held today, 5/10/06, in California's 50th Congressional District, Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby tie, each with 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 442 likely voters conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV San Diego. 9% would vote for some other candidate. Bilbray gets 82% of Republican votes. Busby gets 92% of Democrat votes. Among Independents, Busby leads Bilbray 54% to 19%. Bilbray leads among male voters by 5 points. Busby leads among female voters by 5 points. The 50th Congressional seat is vacant; Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham resigned on 11/28/2005. Busby won the Special Primary on 4/11/06 with 44% of the vote. Bilbray finished second with 15%, 1 point ahead of Republican Eric Roach. 80% of Roach's voters now support Bilbray. Among likely voters who did not vote in the Special Primary, Bilbray leads Busby by 19 points. 27 days remain until the 6/6/06 Primary. |
| Filtering: 900 registered voters from California's 50th Congressional District, identified using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 5/7/06 - 5/9/06. Of them, 442 were judged to be "likely voters". Crosstabs reflect Likely Special Election voters. |
 | If the Special Election for Congress were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Brian Bilbray? Democrat Francine Busby? Or some other candidate? |
| 442 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | Race | Party | Ideology | Voted in 4/11 Primary | Education | Income | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Did Not | Bilbray | Busby | Roach | Someone | No Colle | Some Col | College | Grad Sch | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Bilbray (R) | 45% | 48% | 43% | 43% | 42% | 50% | 44% | 47% | ** | 43% | 28% | 82% | 3% | 19% | 84% | 30% | 1% | 54% | 94% | 2% | 80% | 58% | ** | 56% | 45% | 35% | 41% | 47% | 45% |
| Busby (D) | 45% | 43% | 48% | 41% | 47% | 43% | 48% | 44% | ** | 36% | 55% | 12% | 92% | 54% | 8% | 60% | 92% | 35% | 3% | 96% | 7% | 14% | ** | 35% | 42% | 57% | 44% | 43% | 49% |
| Other | 9% | 9% | 8% | 16% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 8% | ** | 17% | 17% | 6% | 3% | 26% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 12% | 28% | ** | 8% | 11% | 8% | 14% | 8% | 6% |
| Undecided | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | 5% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | ** | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 15% | 29% | 33% | 23% | 86% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 38% | 39% | 20% | 19% | 17% | 37% | 11% | 16% | 3% | 30% | 29% | 38% | 13% | 27% | 47% |